Historical cycle data suggests that BTC has moved out of the danger zone — is a return to $73,000 imminent?
A popular crypto strategist, citing historical data, suggests that Bitcoin has officially left the post-halving “danger zone,” potentially bottoming out its range and is now heading towards a re-accumulation phase.
Despite the final approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of several spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bitcoin’s price has recently experienced a pullback, currently hovering around $69,000. With Bitcoin escaping the danger zone, is the premier cryptocurrency poised to quickly recover its upward trend, or is there still potential for a deeper correction?
Bitcoin’s sideways trading to continue for weeks: Analyst
On May 24th, cryptocurrency trader and analyst Rekt Capital released the latest insights, indicating that the classic Bitcoin “danger zone” after the quadrennial halving event is now in the past. According to Rekt Capital, the post-halving danger zone occurred in previous market cycles when the asset corrected after the substantial subsidy halving. Following the end of the danger zone, Bitcoin historically entered a phase of consolidation within a narrow range, indicative of a re-accumulation stage.
This suggests that further retracement may still be present during the sideways consolidation period post-halving. “Since the end of the ‘danger zone’ after the Bitcoin halving, Bitcoin rallied to $71,500. However, ~$71,500 marks the upper resistance of the macro re-accumulation range, which is also where Bitcoin got rejected,” Rekt Capital wrote. “Consolidation is still ongoing, and historically, it tends to last several weeks between $60,000 and $70,000.” Rekt Capital further observes that based on historical behavior, Bitcoin may remain within the range below $70,000 until September. “Historically, Bitcoin has always rejected from the range highs upon its first attempt post-halving. Furthermore, history suggests that this re-accumulation should last for a longer period. Bitcoin tends to break out of these re-accumulation ranges only after 160 days post-halving. This translates to Bitcoin potentially breaking out of the re-accumulation range by September 2024.”
Bitcoin Price Overview
In this cycle, Bitcoin dropped over 20% from its mid-March all-time high of $73,737 to around $56,780 on May 1st, marking a potential bottom during the post-halving danger zone period. On May 21st, Bitcoin briefly surpassed the critical psychological level of $70,000; however, it swiftly fell to around $67,000. As of writing, BTC has since rebounded to $69,176, supporting the return of analysis on the re-accumulation area.
While the flagship cryptocurrency appears to be in a sideways consolidation price trend, industry experts remain bullish. For instance, seasoned crypto market commentator Tom Lee has stated that his fundamental prediction for Bitcoin by the end of this year is $150,000.